The data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 10th, a quarter of China’s total imports and exports of $ 859.37 billion, an increase of 7.3 percent, reversing two months before the cumulative deficit situation, to achieve a surplus of $ 670 million. For the difficult start of China’s foreign trade in the severe external demand environment, this start to pass the information?
The foreign trade still face greater downward pressure on
The data show that in the complicated domestic and international economic situation, China’s foreign trade in the first quarter, maintaining steady growth. Import and export value of $ 325.97 billion in March alone, an increase of 7.1%. Which exports $ 165.66 billion and imports of $ 160.31 billion, after seasonal adjustment, China’s import and export, export growth in March and up 0.2 percentage points and 5.8 percentage points.
Worth noting, however, import and export of the first quarter of 7.3% growth rate is the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2009, indicating that the downward pressure of China’s foreign trade is still large.
Cheng Yue Yeung said, the Statistics Division of the General Administration of Customs, the weak demand in the international market is a major factor affecting China’s exports, of which the first quarter of China’s largest trading partner of the European Union’s exports fell by 1.8%, worthy of attention.
Li Jian, researcher at the Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said the current world economic growth, fatigue, showed mild recession in Europe, a favorable factor for U.S. economic recovery on the rise, but sustainability remains to be seen. In this context, three months before China’s foreign trade growth of 7.3% was not easy, but still more may face difficulties in the future.
Recently, this reporter also found in the Yangtze River Delta region in a research interview, part of the foreign trade enterprises in the first quarter orders decline, while the corporate mid-market is expected to more negative external demand, especially the possibility of deterioration of the market demand in developed countries.
Well-known stationery companies Beifa Group Co., Ltd., Qiu Zhiming noticed a phenomenon, Safety Deposit Box, especially mini-safe contrarian rosy export business since last year.
He believes that this is mainly because the international financial crisis has changed the way people live, the developed countries, consumers pay more attention to the savings in the long run, this will undoubtedly impact of Chinese export trade.
At the same time, in the face of a quarter of a complicated situation, experts believe that this also highlights China’s foreign trade industry has officially bid farewell to the era of high growth “into the” slow growth of objective reality, and how to adapt to the new pace of development, to accelerate its pace of structural adjustment, the relevant departments and enterprises must face the “final exam”.
“Accustomed to the export year increase of 20%, 30% of the enterprises, the growth rate of about 10% is the norm, which requires companies to have to face more severe competition in the market trend. Only through the products and industrial structure adjustment, the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading of the pace, in order to remain invincible in the future on the international market. “said Zhang Yansheng of the Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission Academic Committee.
Throughout the year, “Paul 10” target can still be of
In this year’s government work report, the 2012 import and export volume expected growth target is set to about 10%. Industry experts said that from the data of the first quarter, foreign trade growth in coastal areas from the index gap. According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, the coastal provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other foreign trade import and export value growth of 4.3%, 0.3%, 5.2% and 3.1% are below the national growth rate.
According to the Guangdong Foreign Economic and Trade Office of the recent survey of 758 foreign trade enterprises to display, reflecting the order reduction in the number of enterprises accounted for 36%, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to October last year, statistics; future export prospects are not optimistic about business also rose to 36.8 percent from 32.9 percent in October last year, still slightly less than the market confidence.
March of the leather industry is still traded flat year on year decrease in the number of orders for about 5% Guangzhou Kam cream leather Co., Ltd., chairman Lin Wei said. The largest impact is the amount of orders last year’s U.S. and European clients on a casual female bags can bid $ 12, can only accept up to $ 8 this year, coupled with rising costs, now can only maintain a small profit, so the annual foreign trade situation cautious.
Despite the greater resistance, industry experts still trade “and 10” targets reported to the optimistic expectations. Said Zhang Yansheng, from the experience in previous years, foreign trade growth throughout the year showing a “low”, the key to the second half of the year, is expected to realize an annual target of 10% is very likely.
“From a historical perspective, in the first quarter is often the foreign trade annual increase in the level of low.” Zheng Yue Yeung said.
Ministry of Commerce, Foreign Trade Secretary Wang Shouwen Under normal circumstances, the second quarter of the year, pick a single peak period of China’s foreign trade, shipments peaked in the third quarter. Many people in the industry, including himself, our country throughout the year to 10 percent of foreign trade import and export growth target for optimism.
Li Jian, said the favorable factors in the current world economy and trade increased, gradually ease the downward pressure compared to the second half of last year. His analysis, from the export market structure, the first quarter of China’s exports to the United States and Japan were up 12.8 percent and 10.3 percent higher than the growth rate of exports as a whole, showing some signs of the recovery of the markets of developed countries.
The commodity structure of export of electromechanical products of the first three months of $ 252.99 billion, an increase of 9.1% over the same period exports overall growth rate 1.5 percentage points. Mechanical and electrical products, machinery and equipment used in the production, often reflected in the fluctuations in the economy take the lead in recovery features, mechanical and electrical products exports rebound Next export the steady growth of the release of a positive signal.
China International Economic and Exchange Center Advisory Research Vice Minister Wang Jun said that except for the required weak factors, a sense of the difficulties encountered in the past two years China’s foreign trade also belong to the domestic economic restructuring brought about by the “labor pains”, if you can seize the opportunity to stabilize the growth under the premise of promoting change in the pattern of the foreign trade structure adjustment and development, China’s foreign trade will shine with new vitality.
The surplus will be continued to narrow
Customs figures show exports rose by 8.9 percent in March, after the market is expected that export growth will fall to about 7%; imports grew by 5.3 percent, below market expectations of 9%. Higher than expected as exports, while imports lower than expected, China’s current month’s trade surplus rose to $ 5.35 billion. The first quarter of the cumulative trade surplus was $ 670 million, reversing the previous two months the situation of China’s trade deficit of $ 4.3 billion.
Analysts also believe that a minor surplus to help improve China’s international trade environment, but also be able to ease the trade friction and the pressure of RMB appreciation.
For a long time to realize the basic balance of trade is the orientation of China’s foreign trade policy, strengthen the import is an important means to achieve trade balance. State Council executive meeting held recently to determine the adjustment of import tariffs on some commodities, to improve the level of trade facilitation, a number of policies to appropriately expand the scale of imports, and promote the balanced development of foreign trade.
From the Commerce Department data show that the scale of China’s trade surplus so far has been three consecutive years of decline, the 2011 full-year trade surplus of $ 155.1 billion, down 14.5 percent, slowing down the surplus growth of the European Union, the United States narrowed by 30.1 percent and 14.7 percentage points. Surplus accounting for the proportion of China’s GDP fell 2.1%, more balanced development of foreign trade.
“The trade surplus continued to decline will be the long-term trend.” Said Zhang Yansheng anticipation.
Wang Jun said, do not rule out the possibility of future individual months or even quarter deficit again, but he believes that will continue throughout the year to maintain a surplus of about $ 100 000 000 000 scale.
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