Posts tagged crisis

“Made in China” latent crisis: outsource production back to the U.S.

January 7, 2013 · Filed under Made in China · Tagged , ,

“Up to now, Apple has not any details disclosed in San Francisco on the afternoon of January 3, Silicon Valley, Santa Clara University School of Business Operations Management and Head of the Department of Information Systems, Professor Andy A Tsay studies of Apple’s supply chain in an interview with reporters said.

The previous month, Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, said in a speech, Apple will resolve to contribute to the U.S. employment issue, plans to invest one billion dollars to Apple’s manufacturing back to the United States. “We have worked on this for some time, is getting closer and closer to this goal, it will occur in 2013, we are proud of.” Cook said.

This U.S. manufacturing reflux another latest cases of large companies. In fact, the entire 2012, General Electric (GE), but also because of the same reason almost unmatched in the depth of the U.S. media reported.

GE headquarters located in Louisville, Kentucky Electric Park, in the last century, 50 years on behalf of the U.S. manufacturing monument Today, small scale complex past glory. However, in February last year, it began to low energy water heater set up a new assembly line for the manufacture of cutting-edge, this kind of work had been responsible for GE China factory; 39 days later, electrical Park to open the second for the manufacture of new high-tech French door refrigerator The new assembly line, it was the work of GE Mexico.

Earlier this year, GE another responsible for a new stainless steel dishwasher production line will be started soon, it also plans to produce the products have never been produced in the United States, the drum washing machine and matching dryer. “Outsourcing is rapidly becoming the GE business model obsolete.” GE CEO Jeff Immelt to talk nonsense, and four years ago he wanted to electrical Park sell, the shot failed because the economic downturn. Immelt still declared in September last year, the GE Electric Appliance Park headquarters to invest $ 800 million, and the newly set up 10,000 jobs.

The Atlantic Monthly: GE appliance manufacturing gradually “home” is not a single case, in fact, is more and more U.S. companies to do so, which is “a kind of a return to give the U.S. economy and industry , has just begun, with the sustainability of exploration.

According to information obtained by reporters, as early as in 2011, the Boston Consulting Group had baked for U.S. manufacturing reflux signs a document called the “revival of U.S. production – why the manufacturing sector will return to the United States,” “Made in American, Again – Why Manufacturing will Return to the US “report, this report up to 19: the trend of turning the financial crisis and the recession has made the United States is becoming a lower cost manufacturing countries.

At the same time, the report recommends that foreign companies should re-evaluate the strategy of China, pointed out that “China should no longer be regarded as the default option. The Boston Consulting Group recently even predicted that there will be as many as 600,000 manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. from China in 2020.

Made in USA on the rise

“First of all, any change about the premise of In recent years, the U.S. economy is bad premise, especially some of the Obama administration’s policy in favor of the manufacturing industry in several countries after globalization, the current start-up companies Globalization Training CEO Leslie Yuen reporters transoceanic connection.

In fact, offshore outsourcing is the U.S. presidential campaign is an important keywords suffering from the recession and unemployment plagued the ordinary people of the United States is widespread resentment of outsourcing, Romney is Obama beat also its policies advocate and occupational background. “Romney was the effectiveness of the private equity investment firm, Bain Capital, Bain Capital reached a lot of trading is outsourcing the work plan of the United States to China.” Leslie said.

Instead, Obama praised the “stimulus package” (Stimula Package), strongly motivate the jobs back to the United States in all respects. Such as support for GE to use American labor to establish a new energy-efficient home appliances under the 2009 Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the U.S. federal government to the implementation of a series of tax breaks and incentives to GE. Shortly thereafter, the Kentucky State Government and the City of Louisville also made a positive tax incentive plan.

According to reporters access to information, GE announced

$ 800 million investment in the electrical Park, it received a total of $ 37 million in state and local incentives, this motivate a large factor in the GE employee plans (providing local jobs), and GE is also the federal government awards a total of 24.8 million dollars in investment tax credits.

Obama in November last year, just re-elected President of the United States and immediately convened 14 business executives at the White House held the theme of “insourcing American jobs” roundtable, urged enterprises to more overseas jobs back to the United States to promote economic growth and reduce unemployment, the “employment package” plan has not yet been disclosed specific details.

ABC News in the United States-led “Made in USA” movement from several states gradually spread to the United States most slowly to “empty talk about” Implemented “level, the impact is not small. However, policy incentives and the public voice of only one aspect, but more importantly I am afraid that the formation of the shock from the economic cycle.

According to the Atlantic Monthly written a lengthy summary of insourcing boom “(The Insourcing Boom) Total U.S. manufacturing caused by a variety of factors reflow phenomenon.

First, oil prices tripled in 2000, the cargo ship’s fuel expensive and long distant outsourcing supply chain will be affected; Secondly, greatly reducing the cost of natural gas in the United States to flourish, while Asian gas cost is American fourfold.

Secondly, wages in China is five times that in 2000, it also will be an annual 18% growth in contrast to this in order to survive, American labor unions are changing their outstanding level option. As the seventies and eighties electrical Park famous “strike the city, motionless like a baby to the company in order to strike, but today, the unions have been willing to accept a distinction tiered salary scheme in 2005, 70% of the trades will be lower remuneration , reward, about $ 13.50 per hour to almost $ 8.00 lower than before.

In other words, the world’s most expensive human resources under the influence of the financial crisis and economic recession a few years, the price requirement lowered a lot, and even the workers’ union of the three major U.S. auto companies agreed to up to 35-45% of the overall pay and benefits concessions lower or comparable to the standards in the United States and Japanese auto workers, a direct result of the overall concessions: U.S. auto ex-factory price is still lower than the same type of Japanese car close to their Japanese counterparts, but the profit margin on.

Mainland China contrast, in addition to rising wages, Foxconn is an extreme typical case. Since “jumping the door”, Foxconn is always faced with allegations of exploitation of employees. Access to information, according to the reporter, Foxconn since 2010 have been gradually adjusted salary levels several times last May, Gou claimed that let mainland employees 2200 salary increase doubled, which means August 2013 Foxconn employees in Mainland wages will reach 4,400 yuan.

Came out in 2011, “the U.S. production revival – why the manufacturing sector will return to the United States” report to do a more thorough comparison, 22% of the labor costs in the United States pointed out that the average cost of Chinese labor in 2005, but in 2010 31 %. At the same time, the wages of the Chinese factories hourly productivity is 8.62 U.S. dollars, the southern U.S. $ 21.25, it is expected that in 2015 China’s Yangtze River Delta coastal areas will reach 15.03 dollars, the southern United States is $ 24.81, the percentage of occurrence of considerable change.

Finally, another important variable caused by reflux of U.S. manufacturing, U.S. labor productivity continued to rise, this also means that the cost of labor has become an increasingly small elements of the overall product cost.

Beat Chinese prices

In addition, the U.S. ability to innovate is gradually penetrate to the daily life of the product to further promote the shrinkage behavior of the U.S. manufacturing sector. “American culture respected innovation, emphasizing profitability through the creation of high value-added products, but this ability now more and more land to the day-to-day (Triggle Down), which also led to related companies care more about the protection of intellectual property rights inviolable. “Leslie told reporters.

A car looked like a computer with four tires, in fact, the high-tech than outside it looks complicated. Innovation both product innovation (Production Innovation) Process Innovation (Process Innovation), and in fact more complex processing innovations. “Andy said, the same is true of the field of home appliances, such as washing machine has been able to Andy home just purchased inside how much clothing automatically recommend the release of water.

“Made in China” latent crisis: outsource production back to the U.S. for

GE water heater GeoSpring is also such a thing, it looks like the “Star Wars” robot R2-D2, just higher and thinner, the mystery is in its head, GE placed it a small heat pump, making it capable of around air to help heat results GeoSpring less than a typical water heater power of 60%, even it can be manipulated through the iPhone.

GE this type of water heater has been in the electrical Park design, production overseas, but the harvest of victory, while GE also found a loophole. They think that because this is an innovative product, start it may be due to outsourcing considerable cost savings, but production in China also means risk, because the GeoSpring element of innovation may be copied, 2009, GE also moved its production back to the local community.

A fairly interesting change happened then: lower material costs, labor costs may still need to improve, but GeoSpring quality rise, even as energy efficiency is also improved. “Do not need to raise prices in the headquarters of manufacturing GeoSpring will be able to generate profits, GE executives said:” So long as we returned to headquarters, and then create the same things you can. ”

In fact, the price after the production of this headquarters even beat Chinese prices. Atlantic Monthly disclosure, the old production system GeoSpring retail price of 1599 dollars, from design to manufacturing system gathered in electrical Park, so that the effects of its new generation of the GeoSpring retail price dropped to 1299 dollars, the price reduction 20%.

Here there are some invisible costs, such as GeoSpring from Chinese factories Store transit time to the United States for up to five weeks, only 30 minutes from the electrical Park factory to the retail store warehouse. “I have always stressed’m going to consider the total cost (Total Cost of ownership).” Andy pointed out that labor costs are only one aspect of a large number of invisible hidden costs in the overseas telephone calls.

These hidden costs include the costs of different time zones lead to the time difference, the language barrier severely affect communication and coordination, the quality of risk (including a lot of money to fly to Asia just why In order to clarify the quality can not be guaranteed), the risk of fraud, intellectual property risks, and by the Intellectual Property risk due to innovation homogenization risk.

“In addition, as a flood, tsunami There earthquake are uncontrollable factors. Fact, the previous year’s earthquake in Japan, floods in Thailand are outsourcing supply chain has been seriously interrupted, and has thus triggered reflections outsourcing and insourcing the rise of the concept. “Andy told reporters the U.S. manufacturing sector in the past due to the Wall Street sake, too much emphasis on short-term cost reduction while ignoring other, because that will determine the company’s stock price and executive pay:” But this is a short-sighted. ”

Surprising, when the U.S. manufacturing reflux, this behavior started to become a trend in the most emphasis on innovation in Silicon Valley. The end of 2012, the San Jose Mercury News, Silicon Valley’s most famous newspaper called “Bay Area manufacturing” (Made in the Bay Area) a huge topic.

“It sounds a little crazy,” the topic lead author Mike Cassidy column self-ridicule: “This is situated Facebook, Google and cloud computing and data on Earth only in your life only to think about how to create the company and wealth can be forgiven place the number of times you have heard that the manufacturing industry in the Bay Area have died? How many times have you heard that Silicon Valley is no longer a production center? but the situation is actually not so. ”

Introduced the topic of “Bay Area manufacturing some plans from the design to the production of all the new computer start-up companies in the United States, also cited some data: 18% of manufacturing jobs in Silicon Valley, and this figure in recent years has been remained stable, the number of Bay Area factory work from two years ago, the 7900 rose to 16.2 million.

Boutique manufacturing operations rely on fewer workers, more computer code and the incredible machine is building the complex components of the electronic world and the earlier update iteration. “Mike Cassidy also pointed out that another state of the U.S. manufacturing recovery from a Silicon Valley perspective : On the one hand the machine to replace the manual so that per capita labor efficiency, on the other hand, the overall size of the U.S. manufacturing sector is therefore growing.

Non-large-scale behavior?

Well, the U.S. manufacturing backflow whether it will become a large-scale behavior? The following conclusion seems premature.

“In fact, the Americans have forgotten production is what’s going on, which also includes GE and the series not suited symptoms, why go to war under the adjustment takes time.” Andy pointed out that Americans forget manufacturing background and sixties of last century The rise of consumer products in the world.

At that time, the the famous theory proposed by Harvard economist Raymond Vernon dominate the political arena, and was again and again to verify. Vernon pointed out: The United States should, with its abundant wealth and strength from the production of new, high value-added products profit, while production from the rich countries to go to low-wage countries, because of fierce competition, the cost will be the main concern point.

“Secondly, personnel training is also a problem.” Andy, whether the United States has enough skilled workers? The fact of the matter is very similar to the phenomenon and the field of IT, IT outsourcing flying to India a few years ago, American students stop pursuing related professional, and even affect the U.S. school subjects established, the education system also needs

Between respond it. ‘

“Many U.S. companies will in fact go to the action of the big companies, and then thinking, I think it’s more of a business cycle phenomenon, outsourcing began to flourish as more than ten years ago.” Leslie pointed out to reporters at the same time, more like a revival of U.S. manufacturing the beginning of a cycle, not one or two days, “may require large companies to explore first, to see if there now is too early to draw any conclusions.

Shanghai Institute of International Studies of long-term concern about globalization researchers Cai Zhicheng also tend to think that these individual phenomenon: doing actual violation of the rules of market economy, and in accordance with the tradition of American liberalism, and anti-globalization periodic callback Cai Zhicheng think back to the U.S. industry shift premature to make a judgment may not be appropriate: “It is more like a reflection of the Western world of globalization, this is a very interesting phenomenon – the West has begun to reflect on globalization China or other emerging markets are actively promoting globalization. ”

For Apple To MAC computer manufacturing back to the U.S., a lot of people to discuss the problems of the United States is a good thing, but the devil is in the details. “Andy said: more details first billion dollar investment plan announced, Apple has yet to disclose the specific reflux MAC computer what type, how Apple will produce assembled in the United States will be to what extent, and how many jobs will involve which.

“One hundred million dollars looks crazy, but Apple has 121 million cash flow lying on the bank, and with Apple this year plans a total capital expenditure of $ 10 billion compared to U.S. $ 100 million is only one percent.” Andy said, followed , taking into account the sales volume of Apple in 2012, Apple sold 1.25 billion iPhone 583 million iPad and 1.8 million Mac computers, Mac computers are not Apple’s star product, so do not expect Apple will bring the number of employment work for the United States. ” .

Tim Bajarin, otherwise Apple’s long-term observers to remind the excitement of the people of the United States, Apple is unlikely to sacrifice profits, Cook is likely to come up with a way, perhaps a crazy innovative approach, with fewer people to do the same job.

Although many experts think that Apple might be able to press speculation, but considering the far Apple has been a computer in the United States to complete assembly, and Cook declared the word “assembly we can do it faster, but we would like to explore some fundamental issues, Andy believes that Apple may also want to take your time, and exploratory work.

Andy pointed out, the company decided where are manufacturing, usually determined by several factors, namely: where customers, where necessary raw materials and service suppliers. “So if Apple has so many customers in China, it is a huge market in China and other Asian markets in China production belong reasonable.” He said: “I’m sure Apple do some standardized products in China, mainly, I think Apple will continue higher amount of labor, relatively low complexity products manufacturing in China, the United States will try some of the relatively high degree of complexity and lower the amount of labor. ”

He also pointed out that the broader U.S. manufacturing reflux: this way is not necessarily the China plant directly off, and then moved back to the United States or elsewhere, and also not to such an extreme way, in fact, likely will be retained factories in China, because China has a large number of consumers, which is not a non-black-white thing, it would be an evacuation and stationed in mixed forms of cooperation. ”

“Europe and Japan, the company will make its own decision in accordance with the same principles.” Andy believes that in the end should be determined where the production of different enterprises have different answers, the answer depends on their location, such as the production brought home, this country must have sufficient local market demand, but also must have sufficient technicians and support system structure.

China Crisis or opportunity?

Changes in Sino-US manufacturing costs may lead manufacturers to rethink production and logistics strategy, but should be moved back to the United States is hard to imagine the production line in China. “Many domestic economists also put forward their point of view:” And even if the U.S. manufacturing industry some reflux is not one-on-one employment transfer, a more likely outcome is that the manufacturing from China’s coastal areas to the transfer of the Midwest and Vietnam, India. ”

“This problem also depends on the type of product, product volume, complexity and labor content.” He is currently being studied for the above point of view, Andy told reporters: “Some product manufacturing may never return to the United States, but in recent years, produced in Mexico is full of temptation for U.S. companies, because it provides a very reasonable nearshore outsourcing solutions for customer service in North America. ”

Manufactured goods in Mexico in a couple of days to reach the United States, and because of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), ground transportation can get tax-free. In addition, the level of wages in Mexico he took to achieve the most low-end of the global standards, but much lower than in the United States. In Mexico, there are a wealth of engineers, it speaks multilingual young generation is very attractive to the United States, Mexico seems to become a manufacturing enterprise clusters including aerospace and automotive businesses.

Related industries in China which in the end will have any effect?

Re-allocation of the next five years, global manufacturing will be more obvious, especially when facing the company decided to add capacity where the Boston Consulting Group in its 2011 report that the relatively high labor content and the mass production of products manufacturing may still remain in China.

“Multinational companies in China still the market supply products to China and the Asia-Pacific region, China has many advantages, the fact that many Western countries are already beginning to learn how to do in China business operations.” Andy also pointed out that, but on the other hand, China need to maintain their competitiveness is also true.

On the export market, China will need to find other ways outside of the low-cost to solve the issue of competition. “He said:” This could improve service? More innovative? Course the Chinese part of the solution is to increase domestic goods and consumption, and on this point China has also realized that a long period of time. ”

“In fact, the production is involved in the quality, rapid and cost, but for businesses, it also needs to sell, so manufacturing is only one part of the business, the largest part, or customer market, you have to close to customer markets in order to make a profit.” Leslie also pointed out that some U.S. companies might manufacture moved back to the United States, but in the future it may also go to the production process and tweaked: “My feeling is that the two sides will have a balance, a small amount of the professional degree requirements, products manufactured in the United States have its competitive advantage, but at larger scale on the United States or not, China and the United States has its own advantages in production, they will form a complementary relationship of enterprises. ”

In addition, some economists argue that surging in the United States within the package will create an industry the opportunity to re-shuffle, at the low end of the global outsourcing value chain, implementation experience thin Chinese service outsourcing benefits outweigh harm.

Leslie also reminded reporters, in fact, in 2010, many Chinese mainland companies take advantage of the cost changes in the environment in the United States to go to parts of the United States to open factories in China last year reached U.S. $ 10.5 billion to the U.S. investment in the amount of funds.

“Chinese enterprises can seize the opportunities of globalization, in the years to acquire U.S. businesses or investments to the United States, to get the U.S. science and technology, research and development, and then by globalization to improve their competitiveness in the Chinese mainland.” Leslie said: “This is a good strategy.”

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U.S. scientists say about full-blown crisis of Chinese population-2

May 12, 2011 · Filed under Chinese population · Tagged ,

U.S. scientists say about full-blown crisis of Chinese population  (1)

Rural population is for the city pension

High fertility rates in rural areas, but the population has helped produce the urban population went to the endowment.

Oriental Morning Post: According to the article in your view, China has entered the stage of old before getting rich. In response, economists say, should China’s rural and urban populations separately, the degree of aging urban than rural, from the rural situation, and old before getting rich does not appear the situation, how do you look at this view?

Yi Fu Yin: Although the one-child policy implemented in 1980 when he was not worried about aging, the fastest aging society will have to wait until 2020, but the fact of China’s population in 1999 had entered the aging society (as The United Nations is an area of ​​traditional standards of the elderly over 60 years of age and 10% of the total population, that is regarded as the region into an aging society). Developed countries, the aging process for decades to 100 years, such as France took 115 years, the Swiss took 85 years, the British took 80 years, the United States took 60 years, but China only 18 years (1981-1999 years) entered the aging society, but also to accelerate the pace of aging. Developed countries, per capita GDP during aging enter 5000 to 1 million, while China is only 1,000. For example, Japan joined in 1967, when an aging society, human development index (United Nations to reflect the level of social development, the comprehensive index) was 0.8, with a median age of 28; but China around 2010 to reach 0.8 Human Development Index, and The median age was 34.5 years old already (equivalent to the level of the United States in the late 1990s, but the level of social development in the United States than in China about 100 years to advanced). China’s social development just in the middle reaches of the world can be said to represent the world average, but the world in 2010 the median age was 29.1 years, compared to the level of China in 1999. China is definitely “old before getting rich”, this aging rate is without precedent.

The degree of old age in rural China is much higher than the city! China’s urban population, total population increased from 20.6% in 1982 rose to 26.3% in 1990, 2000, 36.09%, 49.68% in 2010. The vast majority of young people into the city, that the young population into the cities, rural areas have become old and sick of the base. Such as the 2005 1% Population Sample Survey data tables, the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and above, cities, towns, rural areas were 8.7%, 8.12%, 9.55%; proportion of the elderly aged 60 and over, cities, towns, rural areas were 12.3%, 11.7%, 13.7%. In other words, high fertility rates in rural areas, but the population has helped produce the urban population went to the old-age, leading to support the rural elderly Old Men! In some ways, this is a predatory urban to rural.

Next year’s Super marriageable women to men

2012: Male age at first marriage will be significantly more than female population. After 2022 there will be nearly 40 million bachelor.

Oriental Morning Post: You wrote that in 2009, aged 19 -22 years of age in China reached its peak population (1 million), and then rapidly decreased in 2019 to only 058 million people, 10 years down 43%. For businesses, this means that a serious shortage of new labor force, a large number of companies may leave China; for college means lack of students in 2009, the number of candidates decreased by 40 million people in the college entrance examination in 2010, reduced by 74 million people, the future will bankrupt a large number of universities ; for the defense, the mean decline in quantity and quality of manpower, the proportion of boys in the military service from the current 10% to 19% of the future; also means that the good old days of real estate is about to come to an end. Does this mean that the economic turning point will occur in 2019?

Yi Fu Yin: exactly which year is not obvious, but it is certainly a turning point in the next five years. A variety of demographic data show that the population of full-blown crisis will:

2009 :19-22-year-old young labor force reached its peak, began to rapidly decline. The next 5 years the total labor force reached a peak 15-64 years, and negative growth. Labor is the backbone of national strength, marking the national decline in labor force declined. For example, Japan in 1948, when exports accounted for just 0.44%. However, young workers in the 1950s under the impetus of economic growth began, the proportion of total global exports in 1953 rapidly increased to 1.52%, 3.48% 1963 1973 6.4% 1983 8.0% 1993 9.9% become the world’s second economy. Bottomless pride in the 1980s in Japan, the per capita purchasing power than the United States, 1989, Sony bought Columbia signs of American culture, Mitsubishi bought the United States, the landmark Rockefeller Center buildings. However, the 1990s, Japan started to decrease the total labor force aged 15-64, after a rapid increase in elderly dependency ratio, economic upward trend came to an end, national power began to “date” thin sun, the proportion of total global exports fell to 4.8% in 2009, in the future more will be is “day” Twilight wherewithal.

2011 :20-29-year-old women of childbearing reached a peak and then start rapidly reduced. 2012 :15-49-year-old started to decrease the total women of childbearing age. Women of childbearing age decreased, which means that even if the stop family planning, birth population will rapidly decline, indicating that China has already missed the best time to stop family planning.

2012: Male age at first marriage will be substantially more than the female population, male population of more than 2016 female population above 30%. After 2022 there will be nearly 40 million bachelor. 2010: The elderly dependency ratio started rising rapidly. 2015: The total dependency ratio started rising rapidly. Within a decade, China’s population will face negative growth.

Two-child policy no longer local pilot

China’s 800 million people within the region was the second child pilot, has no further part in the so-called China investigates.

Oriental Morning Post: Do you have done research, If I let the family planning policy, fertility and population structure, what change will happen? If you want to release the family planning policy, in what better way to let go?

Yi Fu Yin: I do not have to be any research, but all of the world population trends have explained the problem, the Chinese are more than 800 million people within the pilot areas of the second child, has no further part in the so-called China research the.

Since 1980 China Yicheng, Shanxi, Gansu Jiuquan, Chengde, Hebei, Hubei, Enshi and other over 840 million people in rural areas, the pilot “second child”, but in 2000 only 1.5 Yicheng fertility, only 1.4 Jiuquan, Enshi 2005 only 1.47, Chengde is only 1.6. Changyang, Wufeng County is located in the old, small, frontier, and poor mountainous areas, a few years ago by the Provincial People’s Congress approved the open second child, born not only was no accumulation, but also no growth rebounded in 2007, fertility rates were only 0.88,0.90 . Pilot areas do not have a second child’s birth rate stabilized at 2.0. Vietnamese and Chinese cultural and institutional background is similar to the level of social development, more than ten years behind China, now is the implementation of two-child policy, but the fertility rate was only 1.8,1.9.

If the country to allow both parties are for couples only child second child, born a year more than 30 million only children; even if one side is the only child can have two children, per year not exceeding 170 million people were born. Therefore, allowing a second child only child only a drop in the bucket.

Compensatory baby boom does not appear

Even if exaggerated estimate, “compensatory baby boom” initially, the population can not be born each year to reach 20 million.

Oriental Morning Post: Do you have considered, if you stop family planning policy, whether there will be compensatory baby boom?

Yi Fu Yin: demographers worry that there will be compensatory to stop family planning after the birth peak. In fact, like the season divided into different seasons (spring busy farmers, seasonal workers or even need to ask, but busy also means a good harvest), the population has never been stable (birth peak to give the dynamics of the industry ” seasonal workers “to provide employment opportunities). Throughout the history of human civilization thousands of years, the population was born after the peak strength often leads to improvement. Whether Wenjing, during the Rule or the Kangxi and Qianlong, have a greater peak birth period.

China from 1963 to 1971 an average of 26.46 million born each year is 1959 to 1962, 1.88 times; 1961 11 million children were born, but in 1963 more than 30 million. 1962 to 1980 were born in the baby boom population of 4.4 billion, China is now the basis for economic take-off (many of the labor force, strong consumer market.)

Japan’s postwar baby boom years of the “mass generation” laid a few decades of prosperity. U.S. national prosperity to a large extent thanks to the two baby boom: 1955 to 1965 an average of 4.15 million births each year is 1.7 times 1930; and 1980s, a second birth peak occurred each year from 1976 births The rise to 3.17 million 4.16 million in 1990 (an increase of 1 / 3). Europe and Japan after the 1980s baby boom did not occur, the current economic recession has started to.

South Korea began in 1962, students for one couple 2 children, family planning with economic development, declining fertility rates, dropped to 1.65 in 1995, causing an aging population and new labor force reduction and other issues. 1996 abolition of birth control, followed by the introduction of the policy of encouraging childbirth. In theory, the peak should appear at birth, but the fertility rate is not rising, falling, down to year 1996 1.58,1997 1.54,1998 1.47,2005 year down to 1.08 in the extremely dangerous levels. South Korea’s policy change did not occur “compensatory baby boom.”

1960, the Singapore government to promote “two is enough.” Fertility rate from 5.01 in 1963 dropped sharply to 1.82 in 1977. In the 1980s was widely criticized this policy, the Singapore government to cancel this policy and to encourage fertility. But the fertility rate did not rebound in the 1980s and 1990s, Singapore’s fertility rate has been hovering around 1.7, is now down to about 1.2.

China’s family planning to stop after the emergence of a small compensatory baby boom. Compensatory growth was expected for women born in the 1970s, the next 10 years, the compensatory growth of population may be a few years ago the high side that reached 500 million or so (even if 10 million is not terrible.) The current average age was 25 years old in early education, primary education of women born in the 1980s, when an average of about 10 million girls born each year, excluding those who died and not birth, leaving 8.1 million fertile women, now are still in only the first child Only a few born in the early 1980s, the beginning of a second child, then the annual total of women born after 1980 at most 12 million children around (probably only 10 million or so). Women in the 1970s with “compensatory birth”, then “compensatory baby boom” period, the annual total up to about 17 million children were born. Even if exaggerated estimate, “compensatory baby boom” initially, the population can not be born each year to reach 20 million.

Even the most exaggerated estimate, about 25 million births each year to the population, compared to a peak of 13 million now, but compared to 1963 (3000 million) is still low, compared to the late 1980s, China and India, the current level (year 25 million children are born) is not too high.

Independent growth of urban population density

Large cities with high population density, traffic congestion, urban planning mistakes in fact.

Oriental Morning Post: The current high population density in big cities, traffic jams, life stress, If I let the family planning policy, further improve the population density is not reduced will be more people’s sense of happiness?

Yi Fu Yin: large cities with high population density, traffic congestion, is an urban planning mistake. Chinese cities are more than 1 million people per square kilometer of urban planning. Some scholars predict that China will reach 1.5 billion population, 16 million, 18 million mu of arable land to protect the bottom line, so countries for high-density urban planning. However, the fact even to stop family planning and to encourage growth in the future stability of China’s population at 1.4 billion difficult. Then adopted the “18 million mu of arable land / 15 billion people” (1.2 mu / person) standards, 14 million people only need 16.8 million acres of arable land. “More” of 1.2 million mu (80,000 square kilometers) between the cultivated land with a “non-cultivated land,” urban development can provide more than 100,000 square kilometers of land to 4,000 people / square kilometer of the population density (New York, USA standard), is to accommodate more than 400 million urban population. Urbanization in 2011 and China has about 50%, that is, 6.5 million or so people already living in the city; next to the total population of 1.4 billion, 70% of the urbanization rate calculation, the urban population will be 9.8 billion more than at present only more than 300 million people. In other words, the basic urban planning in China as they are now unnecessarily timid. Both good to eat, you can live comfortable. Moreover, 1.2 mu / person standard of cultivated land itself is no scientific basis for the development of technology, output per mu will increase substantially the demand for arable land will decrease. Such as grain output in 1978 only 3 million tons, a decrease in arable land as well under the circumstances, and now instead of food production to 5 million tons.

Moreover, China’s arable land has long been underestimated, 1980, 1990 and 1996, respectively, the national land area of ​​14.90 million mu, 14.35 million mu, and 14.246 million mu (see 1999, “China Statistical Yearbook”). However, satellite telemetry back through 2000, Ministry of Land Resources, the National Bureau of Statistics and National Agricultural Census Office jointly published at the end of 1996, 10 total arable land in the country, over the same period increased by 5.26 million acres of the original diameter to reach 19.506 million mu (see The first Census of Agriculture Bulletin No. 5: On the main data of land use investigation results bulletin).

Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2010 also completed a new research results. Results show that China has a different degree of suitability of about 8 million mu of cultivated land reserve resources, of which 40% have a better development conditions. If there is no “land phobia”, then China can be more relaxed urban planning, cities can provide more land, you can also build medium-sized city in many places.

And, from the city itself, the city population was not “born”, and it is “moving out” of. Such as the 1990 census showing that Beijing and Shanghai were 10.82 million population, 1334 million, but the 2010 census, Beijing, Shanghai population was 19,610,000, 23,020,000. Even Beijing and Shanghai before there is no family planning, without immigration, the population will not increase so much now. If Beijing and Shanghai city residents a child is not born just immigrants, Beijing, Shanghai and other cities will increase still the big cities to make room for fewer children to whom? Such as Russia, Japan has been negative growth in population, but in Moscow, Tokyo population is still increasing

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U.S. scientists say about full-blown crisis of Chinese population

May 12, 2011 · Filed under Chinese population · Tagged , ,

The sixth national census data released April 28, as of November 1, 2010, China’s total population of 1,339,700,000 people. And predicted by many experts as before, to maintain a low population growth. 2000 to 2010, between the decade, China’s net population increase of 7390 million, an average annual growth rate is 0.57%, which is 5.7%. Meanwhile, with the proportion of elderly population is increasing, and the age structure of children’s shrinking trend. The State Council Leading Group for the sixth deputy head of the national census, the National Bureau of Statistics, Ma Jian Tong admitted that China has showed the trend of old before getting rich, economic and social development is faced with the attendant contradictions and challenges.

Open discussion of family planning policy has once again become the focus. Called for an end years of family planning policy, and author of “empty nest big country,” a book of American scientists from Hunan Province, China Yi Fu Yin accepted an exclusive interview with Post reporters.

Yi Fu Yin resume shows in its 1988-1999 Xiangya School of Medicine study, by the clinical degree, Master of Science in Medicine, Pharmacology Ph.D.; 1999-2002 University of Minnesota in the United States, to do postdoctoral Medical College of Wisconsin; 2002 Obstetrics and Gynecology for the University of Wisconsin scientists; with a daughter of two children; sporadic research since 2000, the population problem in China since 2002 system the Chinese population. He passed a lot of data analysis, “(China) do not stop planning when?”

In an interview with Post reporters interview, Yi said: “before the census, to stop family planning requires political courage. Census, does not stop family planning requires political courage.” He pointed out that within a decade, China’s population will face negative growth, which requires opening the family planning policy, and not only limited to “single policy” (that is implemented throughout the country as long as one side is the one-child couples can have two children of the policy) implementation. He said that if the country allows both sides the one-child couples second child, born a year more than 30 million only children; even if one side is the only child can have two children, was born more than a year not exceeding 170 million people. Therefore, allowing a second child only child only a drop in the bucket.

But the voice from the policy level does not seem to meet the expectations of Yi Fu Yin. Ma Jian Tong, said the release of census data, the total population is still very large, so China should adhere to the basic national policy, to continue to maintain a low birth rate.

Fertility rate of 1.8 serious false assumption

Negative population growth in time can not wait until 2033, the population peak of 1.5 billion people can not.

Oriental Morning Post: According to you (before) the estimates, China’s current fertility rate of 1.2-1.3 rather than 1.8, is measured out how? The fertility rate of 1.2-1.3 this indicator mean?

Yi Fu Yin: I do not have information on fertility, I was adopted and the National Bureau of Statistics census sample survey. To ensure the population does not increase relative to the previous generation is not reduced (generation change), the developed countries fertility rate (women’s average number of children) need to be maintained at 2.1. Because infant mortality and sex ratio at birth is higher than the developed countries, China’s generation replacement level fertility should be 2.3 or more.

But since the mid-1990s, all the objective data is that the fertility rate is only about 1.3, and the fifth national census in 2000 show that China’s fertility rate is only 1% of the population 1.22,2005 again confirmed fertility sample survey only 1.33. State Family Planning Commission and the mainstream population, but scientists believe that there comeback omission, given the fertility rate is 1.8, thus effectively preventing the population policy adjustments. More than 300 experts from the National Population Development Strategy Group under China’s population of 1.8 predicted the fertility rate in 2010 reached 13.7 million people, and in 2033 reached 1.5 billion peak. However, the sixth national census in 2010 showed that a total population of 1,339,700,000 people (in fact, restated due to the actual population of 12.7 million to 12.9 million people), indicating that fertility is impossible to 1.8, the time can not be negative population growth until 2033, the population peak of 1.5 billion people can not.

In 2011 to develop a “second Five-Year” plan addresses the goal of population control in 2015 was 13.9 million people, even if the census population of 1.3397 billion restatement does not exist, then from 2010 to 2015, these five years, the need to increase 0.503 million people, with an average annual increase of 1,000 people. And in recent years, the census shows an average annual increase of only 400 million people, and deaths are increasing every year, which means an annual increase of population of more than 400 million people in the current declining basis, how could the next 5 years, an annual increase of 1000 million people?

National Bureau of Statistics does not publish the exact fertility data, but the following three methods can be rough measurement fertility rate:

1,0-14 years old 16.60% total population, roughly assume that the average childbearing age of women was 25 years old, then the 222 million 0-14 years old (born 1996-2010) in 1971, the population of the mother was born in 1985 (fifth census showed that women born in that age group were 154 million people), then in 1996 -2010, the average fertility rate is only 1.44 or so.

2,2000 aged 0-4 years, the population census shows an average of 1369 people per year in 2005, a sample survey of 1% of population aged 0-4 million per annum for the 1380, 1996 -2005 in the 10 years between, roughly an average of 1374 people born every year. National Bureau of Statistics bulletin shows that each of the years 2006 -2010 1996 -2005 births and births each year roughly the same. The “2010 Sixth National population census data Bulletin (No. 1)” show 0-14 years old (born from 1996 to 2010) population of 22,246 people, with an average 1483 people per year. So the 2000 census and 2005 sample survey of 1% of the population to the low age group only 7.9% of the omission of (1483 ÷ 1374 = 1.079). Even if the population born in 2000 with the exaggerated rate of 10% of the omission, then the fertility rate of only 1.34 (1.22 × 1.1 = 1.34), 2001 began the “fifth,” planning the plan should stop.

3, there is another more accurate way of a rough measurement. According to the U.S. Population Reference Bureau, “Population Handbook” Fourth Edition definition, the total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the assumption of a year, according to women’s fertility through reproductive age, the average fertility of women in the reproductive number of children. A particular point in time the total fertility rate of all the fertility rate of women together, with a number to represent. In fact, it is the assumption that a woman of childbearing age in the whole period (ie 15-49 years old) are in accordance with age specific fertility rates of a birth year, her total number of babies.

Sixth time in accordance with the 2010 census data, 0-14-year-old population accounts for 16.60%, then the 1996-2010 average of 14,826,288 people born each year. We do not know the age-specific fertility rates, but can be derived from the last census the total number of women 35 years of fertility, such as women of childbearing age in 2005 aged 15-49 years in 1956 to a girl born in 1990, a total of 368,171,308 people, past 15 on average 357 948 206 the total number of women of childbearing age, 35 years average 10,227,092 people (357948206/35 = 10227092). Fertility = number of children born each year / the number of women the average annual growth = 14826288/10227092 = 1.45.

This algorithm is higher than actual fertility, such as the top U.S. Population Reference Bureau, “Population Handbook” total fertility rate of Israeli laws in this algorithm is 2.93 (number of children born in Israel in 1994 as the number of women of childbearing age 113731,15-49 years to 1,356,400, fertility = 113731/1356400 × 35 = 2.93), but with age-specific fertility rates for the accurate calculation of the total fertility rate of 2.88; according to China’s fifth population census data, calculated by this method in 2000, 1999 , 1998,1997, respectively 1.38,1.16,1.43,1.49 years of fertility, but age-specific fertility rates with accurate calculation of the total fertility rate were 1.23,1.23,1.31,1.31. Means that the average total fertility rate in China in 1996-2010 is not 1.45, excluding the impact of restatement, the actual fertility rate is only 1.35 or so. Before the National Bureau of Statistics shows the data on fertility is a basic and accurate.

Omitted in the census has done quite well to prevent, omission rate was only 0.12%. From this perspective, the census is still quite successful. The next step is to respect the authority of the census on low fertility, according to census data as soon as possible to stop family planning.

U.S. scientists say about full-blown crisis of Chinese population-2

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Semiconductor Japanese goods: raw materials crisis spread

March 16, 2011 · Filed under Sino-Japanese trade · Tagged , ,

Located in the Waigaoqiao packaging and testing company of security personnel by the Chief Executive Officer, said Zhao Xijing, the impact of earthquakes on the Shanghai plant has a significant impact. At present they can not get smooth with the Japanese raw materials contact the factory, resulting in the deployment problems of raw materials, existing inventories tight, the next production plan can not be determined. Shanghai Amkor personnel with intermittent communications in Japan understand that although the smooth route from Shanghai to Tokyo, but Tokyo to traffic interruption of raw materials plant, transport of goods can not be guaranteed.

Caohejing Panasonic Semiconductor is a subsidiary of Matsushita of Japan in Shanghai, 100% of the semiconductor chip used to provide raw materials in Japan. Long Li Qing, vice factory, currently provided at no direct impact on the chip, but received the news that the silicon chip manufacturing production affected, may soon be transmitted to the chip supply chain.

SanDisk Minhang the plant is a joint venture between Toshiba, Toshiba is the main raw material suppliers. SanDisk and Toshiba, the Japanese official said, is headquarters to assess the nandflash flash memory supplier, it is expected tight supply, the latest listing of the main use is Apple iPad2 production nandflash Toshiba flash memory. Toshiba is currently in a chip factory in Iwate Prefecture affected by power failures, Toshiba has issued a warning that the problem of transport caused by the earthquake, the chip will delay the delivery time to the user, which may affect iPad2 flash supply, indirectly, on the terminal iPad2 supply on the market and price impact.

In addition, Japan is supporting the formation of the LCD panel key exporting countries. TCL Group’s 8.5 generation LCD panel production line in Shenzhen Huaxing power production equipment purchases from Japan, but affected by the earthquake, production equipment supply changed. TCL Group, said yesterday that now appears necessary imports of production equipment procurement delays, and will definitely delay the Huaxing power production time. BOE another LCD panel manufacturer, said yesterday, the Japanese earthquake caused some BOE impact the supply chain, BOE said that if the Japanese suppliers, problems may seek to South Korea and China Taiwan suppliers instead.

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Oil crisis in the alarm , the world is facing challenges of economic recovery

February 25, 2011 · Filed under Oil crisis · Tagged , , ,

Middle East and Africa, oil-producing region lingering political instability, so that high oil prices once again become the focus of global investors. Exclaimed people in the industry, the current oil market due to volatile geopolitical situation, with 8 years ago, the situation during the war in Iraq is quite similar. Oil prices continued high fever, still struggling to revive the world economy has brought new challenges. Experts warned that if this round of the status of long-term high oil prices continues, stagflation could risk the world economy.

Oil City, after a lapse of 8 years and then temporary “exam”

Egyptian riot in the end of January, the international oil prices jumping up and down to once. However, in recent days with the crazy oil market performance compared to the scene was apparently can only be considered “rehearsal.”

OPEC member Libya’s situation with the continued turmoil in the past two days continuously rising international oil prices, New York and London the price of benchmark crude oil reached a new high of more than two years, and drag on the global stock market crash, gold, bonds and other hedging Variety is great sought after.

Some industry insiders believe that the current oil market situation due to volatile geopolitical situation, somewhat similar. Recently, even the news that Libya’s oil facilities to the Mediterranean region may face the risk of being destroyed.

Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency pointed out that the political situation in the Middle East and North Africa, oil prices could pose long-term development impact, because according to the organization predicts that the next 10 years, the world’s new oil production will come from the Middle East 90% and North Africa, while other areas of the oil production is declining.

BNP Paribas commodity strategist Harry said that the current changes in the factors that led to the crude oil market, the war in Iraq in 2003 is somewhat similar to the case when oil prices are reflecting supply disruptions in the worst possible situation. The only difference is that “now not clearly foreseen in the Middle East turmoil could last long.”

Libya is the world’s 12th largest oil exporting country, about 160 million barrels of crude oil per day, most of them export to Europe. In addition, as a member of OPEC, Libya is Africa’s largest oil reserves in the country.

Stagflation risks facing the world

Even more worrying is that if, in extreme cases, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply is also interrupted because of direct or indirect causes, which will bring a huge impact on the crude oil market. Saudi Arabia’s oil supplies about 10% of global supply, and its spare production capacity but also the world second to none. It is estimated that Saudi Arabia is the only one capable of a serious shortage in the supply of spare capacity when the prompt start of the oil-producing countries.

Some agencies have estimated that high oil prices will have little impact on the world economy. Morgan Stanley chief strategist for emerging markets in Ghana, said in an interview this week that if oil prices because the situation in the Middle East and North Africa rose to 120 dollars, the global economy may fall into recession again. Ghana said that if oil prices continue to stand on the 120 dollars, global economic growth will be significantly lower than current expectations.

The Director-General of the International Energy Agency Nobuo Tanaka, this week warned that if oil prices remain at current levels, may make the global financial crisis in 2008 when repeating the mistake. He said that if oil prices this year has been maintained at more than 100 U.S. dollars, and may induce the same in 2008 when the severe economic crisis.

In contrast, IMF appears to be more optimistic. The organization Lipsky First Deputy Managing Director 22, as long as oil prices trend does not continue, the global economy will not be significantly affected. U.S. bank Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank takes a similar view.

Even if oil prices rally does not appear “out of control” situation, rising oil prices have brought to countries increasingly evident inflationary pressures.

Wall Street celebrities, Pacific Investment Management Company CEO 埃尔埃利安 said on Tuesday that the situation in Libya and other countries, it might give the global economy, especially in Western countries has brought “stagflation” of the risk.

He pointed out that if oil prices due to geopolitical situation remain high, the West will face accelerating inflation; the other hand, the Middle East and North Africa, the developed countries substantially reduced demand for exports, coupled with its high unemployment and economic growth lower than historical level, developed countries could fall into “stagflation.”

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